Organizational and economic mechanism of grain sales: information component
A significant part of the output of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine is exported. Therefore, it is desirable to determine the optimal volume of products to be implemented each month. Prices for grain are formed depending on demand and supply, costs for production and sale, market fees, etc. The analysis of the price situation on the Ukrainian cities shows a large variation. The average price of 1 kg of grain crops does not give a full opportunity to characterize the price situation of the Ukrainian grain market. There is seasonal price cyclicality: their growth with the decrease of stocks and the reduction after harvesting, when mass sales of grain are carried out by producers who are not able to store the grown crops, and consumers make grain crops. In the article the solution of the economic-mathematical model of optimization of the calendar plan for the sale of agricultural products is developed and found. The model is considered from the standpoint of deterministic product prices and under the probabilistic nature of future market prices. The system of restrictions consists of two constraints: to determine the optimal size of grain crop harvesting of each type and the capacity of the warehouse. If future market prices are considered not deterministic, then the commodity producer always has the risk of receiving in the future revenue from the sale of products smaller than expected. A risk-averse person will be guided by two criteria when deciding to: maximize the expected total net income and minimize the dispersion of total net income. In this case, the model will be two-criterial and nonlinear. The method of supporting the process of determining the predominance of multi-criteria optimization is that the owner first of all has received information about the limits of the variation of the expected total net income and the standard deviation of income on the set of effective options for the calendar plan. The peculiarities of the individual attitude to risk are calculated by drawing information on the permissible levels of the indicated criterion. Further among all effective variants of the calendar plan of realization is calculated precisely the one that best reflects the individual predominance of the owner of the product. The following information is needed to construct a numerical model for grain sales: sales prices and the cost of storing 1 ton of grain crops to a certain month. The predicted values are based on a simple linear econometric model based on statistical sampling. The reliability of the econometric model is determined by the determination coefficient or on the basis of Fisher's F-criterion according to the theory of statistical hypotheses. Econometric models have weak extropolitic properties, so the forecast can be formed only short-term. The solution of the model showed: all kinds of grain crops, except for barley, are economically unprofitable to be implemented in such months as January, May, June, July and August. Wheat grades 3 and 6, corn is also unprofitable to be sold in September. Unlike other crops, barley is beneficial throughout the year. In February, the maximum sales of wheat is 2, 3 and 6 classes, in March the maximum sale of barley, and the minimum is in May. Maize has the maximum sales in May, and the minimum in September. The minimum sale of wheat depends on its class – September, April and December respectively 2, 3 and 6 classes. With such incomplete loading of warehouses, the profit from storage of grain crops will be 743 thousand. UAH. Thus, PJSC “Gnivan Grain Reciprocal Enterprise” is more likely to load its warehouses to improve its financial position. One of the ways of solving the problem of seasonal grain sales is to create a network of modern certified grain elevators, taking into account the logistically rational location, which will allow to keep enough grain in addition and of the proper quality. This will allow an increase in the efficiency of grain producers through the sale of grain at favorable market conditions in a wider range of time. Independent operators should also be encouraged to ensure that the quality of the grain is objectively measured. At present, the analysis of the work of the grain storage system shows that the high cost of services of active elevators is also a problem.
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