Trends of infectious diseases definition of risk and forecast

  • O.M. Nevolko
  • V.A. Priskoka
  • B.M. Kurtiak
  • V.S. Svidersky
  • V.M. Skovpen
  • S.V. Skorokhod
  • R.A. Datsenko
  • A.A. Moroz
  • V.N. Garkavenko
Keywords: pathogen, virus, risk, prediction and communicable diseases


To conduct analysis of epizootic situation on infectious diseases during 2016 in Ukraine and the world. It revealed the presence of 37 infectious diseases (African swine fever, Bluetongue, Foot and mouth disease, Lumpy skin disease, Newcastle disease, Classical swine fever, Avian influenza, Sheep pox and goat, Epizootic hemorrhagic disease, Peste des petits ruminants, Covering disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Anthrax, Venezuelan Equina Encephalomyelitis, Infectious anemіya horses, Bovine spongiform encephalopathy, Rabbit Viral Hemorrhagic Disease, Monkeypox, African horse sickness, Rift valley fever, Myxomatosis, Hemorrhagic septicemia, Camelpox, Eastern equine sleeping sickness, Paratuberculosis, Heartwater disease, Avian Infectious Bronchitis, Infectious bovine rhinotracheites, West Nile fever, Scrapie in sheep, Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome, European foulbrood, Rabies, Arthritis-encephalitis of goats, Aujeszky’s disease, Tuberculosis, Brucellosis), that infected animals of different species (pigs, cattle, small cattle, birds, camels, horses, monkeys, bees, rabbits, dogs) in 97 countries. The authors argue, what diseases are at unequal stages of development of epizootic process (initial stage, evolution stage, the stage of fading) and therefore characterized by a different number of foci. The share of these four diseases accounted 91.7% of all outbreaks (Bluetongue – 37.6%, African swine fever – 19.6%, Lumpy Skin Disease – 18.06%, Avian influenza – 16.5%). These diseases have been identified as topical, most dangerous for animals on the territory of Ukraine. To defined predominance causative agents of these diseases in the space or on animals. Implemented risk analysis and prediction for short time while using a set of relevant indicators, which proved to be effective. Report on risk and forecast the authors carried out in information weekly and monthly serials.


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How to Cite
Nevolko, O., Priskoka, V., Kurtiak, B., Svidersky, V., Skovpen, V., Skorokhod, S., Datsenko, R., Moroz, A., & Garkavenko, V. (2017). Trends of infectious diseases definition of risk and forecast. Scientific Messenger of LNU of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnologies. Series: Veterinary Sciences, 19(73), 89-94.